The story began with the mysterious death of an employee at a Russian institute specializing in plague research, but it quickly went beyond the cause of death, with conflicting accounts about what happened and extensive precautionary measures being taken for which the authorities did not provide a full explanation.
American analyzes intersect in that the available evidence does not prove that the employee was infected with the plague nor that there is an outbreak of the disease, and that the current indicators do not suggest a major international danger, but on the other hand, they reveal wide gaps in the information provided by Moscow.
Between 5 unresolved questions and 3 contradictions in the narratives, the reports attempt to answer a further question: What does the story of the “Russian Plague” hide? Does this ambiguity reflect an actual health risk or a transparency crisis fueled by incomplete information?
5 outstanding questions
A Newsweek report raises 5 questions that have not yet found conclusive answers regarding the death of Daria Shepilova, an employee at the Irkutsk Plague Research Institute in Siberia, who was hospitalized on September 29 and died on October 2.
1- Was she confirmed to have the plague?
Reports have raised pneumonic plague as a possible cause of the employee’s death, one of the three major forms of the disease along with bubonic plague and septicemic plague.
However, the Russian Health Supervision Authority said that Shepilova died as a result of “pneumonia of unknown cause” and that the tests did not detect microorganisms related to her work, and no laboratory evidence was published confirming that the death was caused by the “Yersinia pestis” bacteria that cause the plague, which means that the official evaluation of the case does not confirm that she was infected with the plague.
2- What did the laboratory tests show?
Igor Kobzev, the governor of the Irkutsk region, confirmed that the tests did not reveal “microorganisms related to the employee’s professional activity.” However, the failure to publish the results of the detailed tests raised questions, as Amos Weiskopf, editor of the Blig News website, indicated that the institute was able to test for the plague within hours, while the cause of death after 4 days remained classified as “of unknown origin” without specifying another cause.
3- Did an accident occur in the laboratory?
Unconfirmed reports raised the possibility of an accident occurring inside the institute, after they said that on September 25, Shepilova broke a tube containing the cause of the plague and did not report the incident, but the Health Supervision Authority denied this story, and said that a special committee did not find any accident related to microorganisms that cause the disease inside the institute.
4- What is the reason for conflicting narratives?
The report indicates that national and local media in Russia are subject to tight control by the Kremlin, which has contributed to the difference in official accounts from those published by independent media.
5- Why was quarantine imposed on some hospitals?
Reports of restricting entry to hospitals in Irkutsk – without official confirmation – raised questions about the nature of the danger and how the health authorities dealt with it. The “People of Baikal” website reported that 3 hospitals in the city, in addition to a children’s hospital and another maternity hospital, were subject to quarantine, and that up to 200 people were placed under medical observation.
3 contradictions
In a separate report, Newsweek highlights 3 contradictions in Russian narratives and procedures, despite the World Health Organization confirming that none of the identified contacts showed symptoms, and Russia informing the organization that it had not detected dangerous infection causes among them.
1- Discrepancy regarding cause of death
The plague initially appeared in official narratives before the federal health authorities later ruled it out. One of the most prominent examples of this decline is that Alexei Tsydenov, President of the Republic of Buryatia neighboring the Irkutsk region, first reported that a woman “died of the plague” before later amending his statement to say that “she may have died of the plague.”
The report indicates that the Russian authorities explained the reason for ruling out the link between Shipilova’s death and her work in the laboratory, but they did not explain why the plague was mentioned so quickly in official accounts, nor what caused the pneumonia that led to her death.
2- Conflicting accounts regarding the source of infection
Newsweek links several conflicting accounts regarding the source of Shipilova’s possible exposure to the infection. The People of Baikal website said that she had broken a tube containing the Yersinia pestis bacteria inside the laboratory, while the pro-Kremlin “Mash” account stated that she had traveled to Buryatia, where there are natural hotbeds of the plague, but Tsydinov denied her entering the republic, while another early account spoke of her returning from a trip to Thailand.
3- Measures that are not consistent with the official story
According to the magazine, the measures taken were extensive compared to the later official account, as the Siberian Realities website reported that more than 60 employees of the institute were detained inside it after Shipilova’s death, and here the report raises a fundamental contradiction: If the plague and the laboratory accident had been ruled out, then why were procedures followed related to dealing with plague cases?
Danger or mystery?
Despite the questions and contradictions surrounding the issue, medical data reviewed by The Atlantic magazine indicate that the possibility of a widespread outbreak of plague remains limited, as David Wagner, executive director of the Institute of Pathogens and Microbiome at Northern Arizona University, explains that transmission of pneumonic plague between humans requires close proximity to the infected person.
Even if it is proven that Shipilova died of plague, Daniel Jernigan, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, believes that fears of a broader outbreak are limited, because the incubation period for the disease ranges from one to seven days, and anyone exposed to the infection was assumed to show symptoms.
Regarding the possibilities of controlling the disease, Wagner adds that the plague – once accurately diagnosed – can be easily treated with several types of antibiotics, which explains why there are no widespread outbreaks or pandemics of the disease at the present time.
The ambiguity and lack of information about the incident raised speculation that Shepilova may have been exposed to a pathogen that was modified in the laboratory to be resistant to treatment, but Atlantic confirms that there is no evidence to support this or indicate that the institute modified the plague bacteria to make it more dangerous.
In parallel, the Wall Street Journal reports that Washington warned Moscow that the lack of information it provided regarding the incident conflicts with its international health obligations, which require informing the World Health Organization of any event that might turn into an international health emergency, and submitting test results and containment measures.
In the latest estimate, the World Health Organization confirmed that the potential case of pneumonic plague represents a “very low” risk outside Russia, and the newspaper also quoted officials as saying that there are no indications that the case will lead to an outbreak with a spreading capacity similar to the Covid-19 pandemic.