An international study reported that more than 22 million people, including a large number of children, may die by 2030 from preventable causes as a result of the United States and European countries reducing their foreign aid.
These conclusions constitute an update to a study conducted earlier this year, which focused solely on the results of US President Donald Trump’s decision to reduce foreign aid, particularly the dissolution of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and expected 14 million deaths as a result of the US measure.
The new study takes into account overall reductions in official development aid, after countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany limited their aid to developing countries.
Gonzalo Fanjul, one of the study’s authors from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), told Agence France-Presse, “This is the first time in 30 years that France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States have reduced their aid at the same time.”
He continued, “European countries are not comparable to the United States, but when viewed together, the blow to the global aid system is enormous. It is completely unprecedented.”
The results of the study, conducted by Spanish, Brazilian and Mozambican researchers, were transferred yesterday, Monday, to The Lancet Global Health magazine, awaiting evaluation.
The study is based on data showing that aid has contributed in the past to reducing the number of deaths, especially through efforts to prevent HIV, malaria and tuberculosis.
In the worst-case scenario based on massive budget cuts, the new study expected an additional 22.6 million deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five, compared to the status quo scenario.
However, in the event of a more moderate reduction in foreign aid, it would lead to an additional 9.4 million deaths, according to the study.
Urgent alarm signal
Shortly after assuming the presidency, Trump reduced US foreign aid by more than 80%, prompted by billionaire Elon Musk.
He also dissolved the United States Agency for International Development, which was the largest aid agency in the world, after distributing about $35 billion in aid during fiscal year 2024.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that this aid does not serve the basic interests of the United States, noting in particular that some of the beneficiary countries voted against the United States at the United Nations.
In his speech before Congress, Rubio denied that US aid cuts had caused any deaths, and accused critics of the decision of belonging to an “industrial complex of non-governmental organizations.”
Instead of seeking to fill this deficit, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany also reduced their aid due to their own financial constraints and increased defense expenditures after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Among the major donor countries, Japan has maintained relative stability in its aid over the past two years.
Sweeping effect
In addition to the immediate cessation of some aid programs, the study indicated that these cuts would have a sweeping impact by dealing a blow to public policies “labored over decades of international cooperation.”
Fanjul stressed the need for countries to eventually become less dependent on international aid, especially in financing the fight against HIV.
“The problem lies in the speed and cruelty of this process,” he said.
The study’s lead author, David Racela, noted that the Trump administration pledged $20 billion to support Argentina.
He stressed that development aid “is not huge at the global level,” adding that policymakers “change budgets without actually realizing the number of lives at risk.”
The study was funded by the Rockefeller Foundation and the Spanish Ministry of Research.
A spokesman for the New York-based charitable organization said: “These data constitute an urgent warning signal to the entire world.”