A study published Tuesday said 39 million people worldwide could die from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, but the grim scenario is still avoidable.
Antibiotic resistance, already a major health challenge, is expected to worsen when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments.
For the first time, this study, published in The Lancet, assesses the impact of antibiotic resistance over time and attempts to predict its evolution.
From 1990 to 2021, more than a million people died each year worldwide from antibiotic resistance, according to the study’s authors. They studied 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-therapeutic combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages from 204 countries and territories, using data from more than 520 million people.
Over these three decades, deaths of children under five directly caused by antibiotic resistance have fallen by more than 50%, with improved disease prevention and control among infants and young children.
Diseases are more difficult to treat when they occur, although they are less common in these children.
adult mortality rate
At the same time, deaths among adults over the age of 70 increased by more than 80% during this period, with population ageing accelerating and older people becoming more vulnerable to disease.
As for pathogens, deaths caused by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) have recorded the largest increase worldwide. Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems is the most advanced.
Over the coming decades, deaths from antibiotic resistance will increase. The number of direct victims could reach 1.91 million annually worldwide by 2050, an increase of more than 67% compared to 2021, according to models developed by the researchers.
By the middle of this century, antibiotic resistance will play a greater role in 8.22 million deaths annually, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021.
Overall, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050, and be linked to 169 million deaths, the scientists say.
But less pessimistic scenarios are possible. Better treatment of infections and access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the study’s authors.