Mrs. Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist at the World Bank, expected that the Qatari economy would grow by 2 percent in 2024, with stable performance in the hydrocarbon sector and strong growth in the non-oil sector, especially in the areas of tourism and construction.
The World Bank official indicated in her interview with Qatar News Agency (QNA) that the hydrocarbons sector will remain a driving force for long-term growth, especially with the beginning of a year prepared for projects to increase liquefied natural gas production to enter the production phase in 2026, as Qatar has concluded large contracts with European and Asian markets. Eastern.
She pointed to the role played by the third national development strategy in supporting diversification, by focusing on the tourism, information technology and other sectors.
Regarding her comment on the question of the World Bank’s expectations for the future growth and current trends in the Middle East and North Africa region in light of the recent World Bank report on the region, the chief economist expected that average growth in the Middle East and North Africa region would reach 2.2 percent in 2024, which is a slight increase from 1.8 percent in 2023, but one percentage point lower than the average growth before the Corona / Covid-19 pandemic.
Roberta Gatti attributed this slight increase in average growth for 2024 to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which are expected to achieve growth of 1.9 percent this year, up from 0.5 percent in 2023, driven by expansions of the non-oil sector in most of their economies.
She continued, “For example, Saudi Arabia is expected to achieve growth in its non-oil GDP – which is estimated at 51 percent of its economy in 2024 – by 4.4 percent.” However, the growth of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries has slowed more than previously expected due to lower oil production than expected against the backdrop of extended oil production cuts.”
In her interview with QNA, she also attributed the slowdown in growth of the economies of the Middle East and North Africa region in 2024 to pre-existing weaknesses, the growing state of uncertainty and the indirect repercussions of the conflict, in addition to global conditions, saying: “It is expected that growth will decline in oil-importing countries.” in 2024 to an average of 2.1 percent from 3.2 percent in 2023, while growth in oil-exporting countries will decline from 3.2 in percent in 2023 to 2.7 percent in 2024.”
Regarding growth trends in 2025, she indicated that growth in the Middle East and North Africa region will accelerate to 3.8 percent, assuming that the conflict in the region will not worsen. Growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries is also expected to strengthen to 4.2 percent, driven by the gradual elimination of oil production cuts.
She added: “The growth of oil-exporting developing countries is expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent, supported by the recovery of the oil sector. At the same time, growth in oil-importing countries is expected to improve to 3.5 percent. “Egypt is expected to lead the accelerated growth of oil-importing developing countries in 2025, supported by investment growth and rising private consumption.”
Regarding what is required of the countries of the region to improve their economic performance in light of these aforementioned results, the chief economist at the World Bank indicated that growth in the GCC countries was driven by expansion in the non-oil sector, while the oil sector was restricted by OPEC Plus oil production restrictions. .
She added: “In the long term, there are important aspects to think about: peace is a prerequisite for growth, and there are opportunities to increase growth by using resources more efficiently.” This includes reallocating competencies from the public to the private sector, promoting innovation, and increasing employment rates, especially by integrating more women into the labor market. “Our region has the lowest rate globally, with only one in five women participating in the labor market.”
In response to the question of the extent to which Middle Eastern countries, whether dependent on oil or others, have succeeded in diversifying their economies to reduce the impact of fluctuations in global energy prices, Roberta Gatti noted the remarkable progress in the path of diversification, saying: “Growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, as we previously indicated, depends Mainly on the non-oil sector. For example, the non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia has witnessed faster growth than the oil sector, with the services and construction sector supporting this growth. However, a large part of this growth still depends on strong fiscal policies, and we will see in the future how diversification will develop without total dependence on state support.”
Commenting on the impact of the decline in oil prices in global markets on future growth opportunities in the region, Ghati enumerated the factors that contribute to the aforementioned decline, including the abundance of supply with the entry of new producers, as the United States and Brazil are important oil producers and weak demand partly as a result of the economic slowdown in China. .
At the conclusion of her dialogue with QNA, the World Bank official stressed the need for oil-dependent countries to diversify their economies not only due to market trends, but also to achieve the goals of reaching carbon neutrality in the future. The growth of the non-oil sector is a positive sign in this direction.
On the other hand, Dr. Ziad Al-Nakat, Resident Representative of the World Bank Group in the States of Kuwait and Qatar, said in a statement to Qatar News Agency (QNA) that cooperation between the World Bank and the State of Qatar goes back more than 5 decades, as the two sides cooperate in a very fruitful way. The World Bank provides the State of Qatar with services. Consultation and assistance in selecting priority economic reforms requested by the State of Qatar and its governmental bodies from the World Bank.